@article {522351,
	title = {The influence of previous mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) activity on the 1988 yellowstone fires},
	journal = {Ecosystems},
	volume = {9},
	number = {8},
	year = {2006},
	note = {<p>128ISTimes Cited:53Cited References Count:33</p>},
	month = {Dec},
	pages = {1318-1327},
	abstract = {<p>We examined the historical record of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) activity within Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, for the 25-years period leading up to the 1988 Yellowstone fires (1963-86) to determine how prior beetle activity and the resulting tree mortality affected the spatial pattern of the 1988 Yellowstone fires. To obtain accurate estimates of our model parameters, we used a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to account for the high degree of spatial autocorrelation inherent to forest fires. Our final model included three statistically significant variables: drought, aspect, and sustained mountain pine beetle activity in the period 1972-75. Of the two major mountain pine beetle outbreaks that preceded the 1988 fires, the earlier outbreak (1972-75) was significantly correlated with the burn pattern, whereas the more recent one (1980-83) was not. Although regional drought and high winds were responsible for the large scale of this event, the analysis indicates that mountain pine beetle activity in the mid-1970s increased the odds of burning in 1988 by 11\% over unaffected areas. Although relatively small in magnitude, this effect, combined with the effects of aspect and spatial variation in drought, had a dramatic impact on the spatial pattern of burned and unburned areas in 1988.</p>},
	keywords = {1988 yellowstone fires, disturbance interactions, Ecology, fire ecology, forest, insect-fire interactions, landscape, markov chain monte carlo, models, mountain pine beetle, yellowstone national park},
	isbn = {1432-9840},
	author = {Lynch, H. J. and Renkin, R. A. and Crabtree, R. L. and Moorcroft, P. R.}
}
