@article {522366, title = {Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change}, journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology}, volume = {241}, number = {3}, year = {2006}, note = {

Moorcroft, P RPacala, S WLewis, M AengResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}tResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.Netherlands2006/02/28 09:00J Theor Biol. 2006 Aug 7;241(3):601-16. Epub 2006 Feb 24.

}, month = {Aug 7}, pages = {601-16}, abstract = {

Recent investigations have shown how chance, long-range dispersal events can allow tree populations to migrate rapidly in response to changes in climate. However, this apparent solution to Reid{\textquoteright}s paradox applies solely within the context of single species models, while the rapid migration rates seen in pollen records occurred within multispecies communities. Ecologists are therefore presented with a new challenge: reconciling the macroscopic dynamics of spread seen in the pollen record with the rules and interactions governing plant community assembly. A case that highlights this issue is the rapid spread of Beech during the Holocene into a landscape already dominated by a close competitor, Hemlock. In this study, we analyse a simple model of plant community assembly incorporating competition for space and dispersal dynamics, showing how, even when a species is capable of rapid migration into an empty landscape, the presence of an ecologically similar competitor causes Reid{\textquoteright}s paradox to re-emerge because of the dramatic slowing effect of competitive interactions on a species{\textquoteright} rate of spread. We then show how the answer to the question of how tree species dispersed rapidly into occupied landscapes may lie in secondary interactions with host-specific pathogens and parasites. Inclusion of host-specific pathogens into the simple community assembly model illustrates how tree species undergoing range expansions can temporarily outstrip specialist predators, giving rise to a transient Jansen-Connell effect, in which the invader acts as temporary {\textquoteright}super-species{\textquoteright} that spreads rapidly into communities already occupied by competitors at rates consistent with those observed in the paleo-record.

}, keywords = {*Greenhouse Effect, *Models, Biological, Ecosystem, Fagus/growth \& development, Plant Diseases/microbiology, Species Specificity, Trees/*growth \& development/microbiology, Tsuga/growth \& development}, isbn = {0022-5193 (Print)0022-5193 (Linking)}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R. and Pacala, S. W. and Lewis, M. A.} }