@article {1491721, title = {Southeast Asian peatland drainage emits 220 Mt of carbon per year, equivalent to 2.2\% of total fossil fuel emissions}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, year = {In Preparation}, url = {https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1995407/latest}, author = {Larson, E.J. and N.C. Dadap and M. Longo and A.G. Konings and X. Xu and E.M. Ordway and S. Saatchi and P.R. Moorcroft} } @article {1491776, title = {Mapping tropical forest functional variation at satellite remote sensing resolutions depends on key traits}, journal = {Commun Earth Environ 3}, volume = {247}, year = {2022}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00564-w}, author = {Ordway, E.M. and G.P. Asner and D.F.R.P. Burslem and S.L. Lewis and R. Nilus and R. Martin and M.J. O{\textquoteright}Brien and O.L. Phillips and L. Qie and N.R. Vaughn and P.R. Moorcroft} } @article {1491746, title = {Memory Drives the Formation of Animal Home Ranges: Evidence from a Reintroduction}, journal = {Ecology Letters}, volume = {25}, year = {2022}, pages = {716{\textendash}728}, url = {https:// doi.org/10.1111/ele.13869}, author = {Ranc, N. and F. Cagnacci and P.R. Moorcroft} } @article {1491736, title = {What lies beneath: Vertical temperature heterogeneity in a Mediterranean woodland savanna}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {274}, year = {2022}, pages = {112950}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.112950}, author = {Johnston, M.R. and A. Andreu and J. Verfaillie and D. Baldocchi and P.R. Moorcroft} } @article {1491761, title = {Impacts of the 2012{\textendash} 2015 Californian drought on carbon, water and energy fluxes in the Californian Sierras: Results from an imaging spectrometry-constrained terrestrial biosphere model}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {28}, year = {2021}, pages = {1823-1852}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15995}, author = {Antonarakis, A.S. and S.A. Bogan and M.L. Goulden and P.R Moorcroft} } @article {1490186, title = {The changing carbon balance of tundra ecosystems: resultsfrom a vertically-resolved peatland biosphere model}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {17}, year = {2021}, pages = {014019}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4070}, author = {Larson, E.J. and L.D. Schiferl and R. Commane and J.W. Munger and A. Trugman and T. Ise and E.S Euskirchen and S. Wofsy and P.R. Moorcroft} } @article {1490176, title = {Leaf surface water, not plant water stress, drives diurnal variation in tropicalforest canopy water content}, journal = {New Phytologist}, volume = {231}, year = {2021}, pages = {122{\textendash}136}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17254}, author = {Xiangtao, X. and A.G. Konings and M. Longo and A. Feldman and L. Xu and S. Saatchi and D. Wu and P.R. Moorcroft} } @article {1490171, title = {Measuring surface temperatures in a woodland savanna: Opportunities and challenges of thermal imaging in an open-canopy ecosystem }, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {310}, year = {2021}, pages = {108484}, author = {Miriam R. Johnston and Ana Andreu and Joseph Verfaillie and Dennis Baldocchi and Mar{\'\i}a P. Gonz{\'a}lez-Dugo and Paul R. Moorcroft} } @article {1402894, title = {Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation-modelintercomparison}, journal = {Glob. Change Biol.}, volume = {27}, year = {2021}, pages = {1802-1819}, author = {N. Restrepo-Coupe and Albert, L.P. and Longo, M. and Baker, I. and Levine, N. M. and Mercado, L.M. and A.C. da Araujo and Christoffersen, B. O. and M.H.Costa and D.R. Fitzjarrald and D.Galbraith and Imbuzeiro, H. and Malhi, Y. and C. von Randow and X. Zeng and P. Moorcroft and Saleska, S. R.} } @article {1402892, title = {Movement, space-use and resource preferences of European golden jackals in human-dominated landscapes: insights from a telemetry study }, journal = {Mamm Biol}, year = {2021}, author = {Fenton, S. and Moorcroft, P. R. and {\'C}irovi{\'c}, D. and et al.} } @article {1402009, title = {Experimental evidence of memory-based foraging decisions in a large wild mammal}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {118}, year = {2021}, pages = {e2014856118}, url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2014856118.short}, author = {N. Ranc and P. Moorcroft and F. Ossi and Cagnaci, F.} } @article {1402008, title = {Leaf surface water, not plant water stress, drives diurnal variation in tropical forest canopy water content}, journal = {New Phytologist}, volume = {231}, year = {2021}, pages = {122-136}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17254}, author = {X. Xu and A.G. Konings and Longo, M. and Feldman, A. and Xu, L. and S. Saatchi and D. Wu and J. Wu and P. Moorcroft} } @article {1360953, title = {Climate change and anthropogenic food manipulation interact in shifting the distribution of a large herbivore at its altitudinal range limit.}, journal = {Scientific Reports }, volume = {11}, year = {2021}, author = {Bright Ross, J.G. and W. Peters and F. Ossi and et al.} } @article {1360952, title = {Memory drives foraging decisions in a large wild mammal: evidence from a field experiment.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {118}, year = {2021}, pages = {e2014856118}, author = {N. Ranc and Moorcroft, P. R. and F. Ossi and F. Cagnacci} } @article {1360994, title = {The Sensitivity of North American Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes to Spatial and Temporal Variation in Soil Moisture: An Analysis Using Radar-Derived Estimates of Root Zone Soil Moisture}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research {\textendash} Biogeosciences}, volume = {124}, year = {2020}, pages = {3208{\textendash}3231}, author = {K.Zhang and A. Ali and A. Antonarakis and M. Moghaddam and S. Saatchi and A. Tabatabaeenejad and Chen, R. and S. Jaruwatanadilok and R. Cuenca and W.T. Crow and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1360990, title = {Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon }, journal = {Nature Sustainability.}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, pages = {430{\textendash}436}, author = {M.E. Arias and F. Farinosi and E. Lee and A. Livino and J. Briscoe and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1360988, title = {Preference and familiarity mediate spatial responses of a large herbivore to experimental manipulation of resource availability.}, journal = {Scientific Reports.}, year = {2020}, pages = {0.1038/s41598-020-68046-7}, author = {N. Ranc and Moorcroft, P. R. and K.W. Hansen and F. Ossi and T. Sforna and E. Ferraro and A. Brugnoli and F. Cagnacci} } @article {1360968, title = {The central Amazon biomass sink under current and future atmospheric CO2 Predictions from big-leaf and demographic vegetation models.}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences}, volume = {125}, year = {2020}, pages = {e2019JG005500}, author = {Holm, J. A. and R.G. Knox and Zhu, Q. and R.A. Fisher and C.D. Koven and A.J. Nogueira Lima and Riley, W. J. and Longo, M. and R.I. Negr{\'o}n-Ju{\'a}rez and A.C. de Araujo and L.M. Kueppers and Moorcroft, P. R. and N. Higuchi and J.Q. Chambers} } @article {1360957, title = {Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests.}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences}, volume = {125}, year = {2020}, author = {Longo, M. and S. Saatchi and M. Keller and K. Bowman and A. Ferraz and Moorcroft, P. R. and D.C. Morton and D. Bonal and P. Brando and B. Burban and G. Derroire and M.N. dos-Santos and V. Meyer and S. Saleska and S. Trumbore and G. Vincent} } @article {1363961, title = {Future climate and land use change impacts on river flows in the Tapaj{\'o}s Basin in the Brazilian Amazon}, journal = {Earth{\textquoteright}s Future }, volume = {7}, year = {2019}, pages = {993-1017 }, author = {F. Farinosi and M.E. Arias and E. Lee and Longo, M. and F. F. Pereira and A. Livino and Moorcroft, P. R. and J. Briscoe} } @article {1363959, title = {The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 {\textendash} Part 2: Model evaluation for tropical South America.}, journal = {Geosci. Model Dev. }, volume = {12}, year = {2019}, pages = {4347{\textendash}4374}, author = {Longo, M. and R.G. Knox and Levine, N. M. and M.C. Dietze and Y. Kim and A.L.S. Swann and D.M. Medvigy and M.C. Dietze and Y. Kim and K.Zhang and D. Bonal and B. Burban and P.B. Camargo and M.N. Hayek and Saleska, S. R. and R. da Silva and R.L. Bras and S.C. Wofsy and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1361006, title = {The biophysics, ecology, and biogeochemistry of functionally diverse, vertically and horizontally heterogeneous ecosystems: the Ecosystem Demography model, version 2.2 {\textendash} Part 1: Model description }, journal = {Geosci. Model Dev.}, volume = {12}, year = {2019}, pages = {4309{\textendash}4346}, author = {Longo, M. and R.G. Knox and D.M. Medvigy and Levine, N. M. and M.C. Dietze and Y. Kim and A.L.S. Swann and K.Zhang and C.R. Rollinson and R.L. Bras and S.C. Wofsy and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1360997, title = {Imaging Spectrometry-derived Estimates of Regional Ecosystem Composition for the Sierra Nevada, California. }, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment.}, volume = {228}, year = {2019}, pages = {14-30}, author = {Bogan, S.A. and A.S. Antonarakis and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1165558, title = {Observed variation in soil properties can drive large variation in modelled forest functioning and composition during tropical forest secondary succession}, journal = {New Phytol. }, year = {2019}, author = {Medvigy, D. and Wang, G. and Zhu, Q. and Riley, W. J. and Trierweiler, A. M. and Waring, B and X. Xu and Powers, J. S.} } @article {1366798, title = {Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts}, journal = {New Phytologist}, volume = {219}, year = {2018}, pages = {914{\textendash}931}, author = {Longo, M. and R.G. Knox and Levine, N. M. and L.F. Alves and D. Bonal and P.B. Camargo and D.R. Fitzjarrald and M.N. Hayek and N. Restrepo-Coupe and Saleska, S. R. and R. da Silva and S.C. Stark and R. Tapaj{\'o}s and K.T. Wiedemann and K.Zhang and S.C. Wofsy and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1363982, title = {Cluster-based trajectory segmentation with local noise. }, journal = {Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery}, volume = {32}, year = {2018}, pages = {1017{\textendash}1055}, author = {Damiani, M.L. and F. Hachem and H. Issa and N. Ranc and Moorcroft, P. R. and F. Cagnacci} } @article {1363981, title = {Science in support of Amazonian conservation in the 21st century: the case of Brazil.}, journal = {Biotropica}, volume = {50}, year = {2018}, pages = {850-858}, author = {Simmons, C.S. and L. Famolare and M.N. Macedo and R.T. Walker and M.T.Coe and B. Scheffers and E. Arima and R. Munoz-Carpena and D. Valle and C. Fraisse and P. Moorcroft and M. Diniz and M. Diniz and C. Szlafsztein and R. Pereira and C. Ruiz and G. Rocha and D. Juhn and L. Otavio do Canto Lopes and M. Waylen and Antunes, A. and Y.M. Galvan} } @article {1363979, title = {Land Cover Change Explains the Increasing Discharge of the Paran{\'a} River.}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change }, volume = {18}, year = {2018}, pages = {1871{\textendash}1881}, author = {E. Lee and A. Livino and S.-C. Han and K.Zhang and J. Briscoe and J. Kelman and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1363975, title = {Decoupling the effects of deforestation and climate variability in the Tapaj{\'o}s river basin in the Brazilian Amazon.}, journal = {Hydrological Processes. }, year = {2018}, pages = {1{\textendash}16}, author = {M.E. Arias and E. Lee and F. Farinosi and F. F. Pereira and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1363967, title = {Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation}, journal = {Biogeosciences}, volume = {15}, year = {2018}, pages = {5801{\textendash}5830}, author = {Fer, I. and R. Kelly and Moorcroft, P. R. and Richardson, A. D. and E.M. Cowdery and M.C. Dietze} } @article {1165564, title = {Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, year = {2018}, url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f30/}, author = {Kaiyu Guan and Stephen P Good and Kelly K Caylor and David Medvigy and Ming Pan and Eric F Wood and Hisashi Sato and Michela Biasutti and Min Chen and Anders Ahlstr{\"o}m and Xiangtao Xu} } @article {1165560, title = {Field evidence for the positive effects of aerosols on tree growth}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {24}, year = {2018}, pages = {4983-4992}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.14339}, author = {Xin Wang and Wu, Jin and Min Chen and Xiangtao Xu and Zhenhua Wang and Bin Wang and Chengzhang Wang and Shilong Piao and Weili Lin and Guofang Miao and Meifeng Deng and Chunlian Qiao and Jing Wang and Shan Xu and Lingli Liu} } @article {1117911, title = {Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, year = {2018}, pages = {35-54}, url = {https://cloudfront.escholarship.org/dist/prd/content/qt3912p4m3/qt3912p4m3.pdf}, author = {Rosie A. Fisher and Charles D. Koven and William R. L. Anderegg and Bradley O. Christoffersen and Michael C. Dietze and Caroline E. Farrior and Jennifer A. Holm and George C. Hurtt and Ryan G. Knox and Peter J. Lawrence and Jeremy W. Lichstein and Marcos Longo and Ashley M. Matheny and David Medvigy and Helene C. Muller-Landau and Thomas L. Powell and Shawn P. Serbin and Hisashi Sato and Jacquelyn K. Shuman and Benjamin Smith and Anna T. Trugman and Toni Viskari and Hans Verbeeck and Ensheng Weng and Chonggang Xu and Xiangtao Xu and Tao Zhang and Paul R. Moorcroft} } @article {1117908, title = {Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests}, journal = {New Phytologist}, year = {2018}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nph.15027/full}, author = {Nate McDowell and Craig D. Allen and Kristina Anderson-Teixeira and Paulo Brando and Roel Brienen and Jeff Chambers and Brad Christoffersen and Stuart Davies and Chris Doughty and Alvaro Duque and Fernando Espirito-Santo and Rosie Fisher and Clarissa G. Fontes and David Galbraith and Devin Goodsman and Charlotte Grossiord and Henrik Hartmann and Jennifer Holm and Daniel J. Johnson and Abd. Rahman Kassim and Michael Keller and Charlie Koven and Lara Kueppers and Tomo{\textquoteright}omi Kumagai and Yadvinder Malhi and Sean M. McMahon and Maurizio Mencuccini and Patrick Meir and Paul Moorcroft and Helene C. Muller-Landau and Oliver L. Phillips and Thomas Powell and Carlos A. Sierra and John Sperry and Jeff Warren and Chonggang Xu and Xiangtao Xu} } @article {1110456, title = {Tree cover shows strong sensitivity to precipitation variability across the global tropics}, journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography}, year = {2018}, pages = {1-11}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12707}, author = {X. Xu and Medvigy, D. and AT Trugman and K Guan and SP Good and I Rodriguez-Iturbe} } @article {1110446, title = {Estimating global ecosystem isohydry/anisohydry using active and passive microwave satellite data}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences}, year = {2017}, pages = {122}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG003958}, author = {Li, Y. and K. Guan and P. Gentine and A.G. Konings and F.C. Meinzer and J.S. Kimball and X. Xu and W.R.L. Anderegg and N.G. McDowell and J. Martinez-Vilalta and S.P. Good} } @article {1096426, title = {Golden jackal expansion in Europe: First telemetry evidence of a natal dispersal}, journal = {Mammalian Biology}, volume = {88}, year = {2017}, pages = {81-84}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1616504717303038}, author = {Jozsef Lanszki and Gergely Schally and Miklos Heltai and Nathan Ranc} } @article {1086941, title = {Plastic response by a small cervid to supplemental feeding in winter across a wide environmental gradient}, journal = {Ecosphere}, volume = {8}, year = {2017}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1629/full}, author = {F. Ossi and J.-M. Gaillard and M. Hebblewhite and N. Morellet and N. Ranc and R. Sandfort and M. Kroeschel and P. Kjellander and A. Mysterud and J. D. C. Linnell and M. Heurich and L. Soennichsen and P. Sustr and A. Berger and M. Rocca and F. Urbano and F. Cagnacci} } @article {1085036, title = {Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, year = {2017}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13910/full}, author = {Rosie A. Fisher and Charles D. Koven and William R. L. Anderegg and Bradley O. Christoffersen and Michael C. Dietze and Caroline E. Farrior and Jennifer A. Holm and George C. Hurtt and Ryan G. Knox and Peter J. Lawrence and Jeremy W. Lichstein and Marcos Longo and Ashley M. Matheny and David Medvigy and Helene C. Muller-Landau and Thomas L. Powell and Shawn P. Serbin and Hisashi Sato and Jacquelyn K. Shuman and Benjamin Smith and Anna T. Trugman and Toni Viskari and Hans Verbeeck and Ensheng Weng and Chonggang Xu and Xiangtao Xu and Tao Zhang and Paul R. Moorcroft} } @article {1066446, title = {A hydrological routing scheme for the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2+R)}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, year = {2017}, pages = {4629-4648}, url = {https://search.proquest.com/docview/1938386843?pq-origsite=gscholar}, author = {F. F. Pereira and F. Farinosi and M.E. Arias and E. Lee and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {1022206, title = {Variations of leaf longevity in tropical moist forests predicted by a trait-driven carbon optimality model}, journal = {Ecology Letters}, year = {2017}, abstract = {

Leaf longevity (LL) varies more than 20-fold in tropical evergreen forests, but it remains unclear how to capture these variations using predictive models. Current theories of LL that are based on carbon optimisation principles are challenging to quantitatively assess because of uncertainty across species in the {\textquoteleft}ageing rate:{\textquoteright} the rate at which leaf photosynthetic capacity declines with age. Here, we present a meta-analysis of 49 species across temperate and tropical biomes, demonstrating that the ageing rate of photosynthetic capacity is positively correlated with the mass-based carboxylation rate of mature leaves. We assess an improved trait-driven carbon optimality model with in situ LL data for 105 species in two Panamanian forests. We show that our model explains over 40\% of the cross-species variation in LL under contrasting light environment. Collectively, our results reveal how variation in LL emerges from carbon optimisation constrained by both leaf structural traits and abiotic environment.

}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12804/epdf}, author = {Xiangtao Xu and David Medvigy and Stuart Joseph Wright and Kaoru Kitajima and Wu, Jin and Loren P. Albert and Giordane A. Martins and Scott R. Saleska and Stephen W. Pacala} } @article {1010136, title = {Differences in xylem and leaf hydraulic traits explain differences in drought tolerance among mature Amazon rainforest trees.}, journal = {Glob Change Biol}, volume = {23}, year = {2017}, month = {2017}, pages = {4280{\textendash} 4293}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13731}, author = {Powell, T. L. and Wheeler JK and de Oliveira AAR and et al.} } @article {1363985, title = {Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of aboveground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models.}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {22}, year = {2016}, pages = {3996{\textendash}4013}, author = {Johnson, M.O. and D.Galbraith and E. Gloor and H. De Deurwaerder and M. Guimberteau and A. Rammig and K. Thonicke and H. Verbeeck and C. von Randow and A. Monteagudo and O.L. Phillips and R.J.W. Brienen and T.R. Feldpausch and G. Lopez Gonzalez and C.A. Quesada and B. Christoffersen and P. Ciais and S. Gilvan and B. Kruijt and Meir, P. and P. Moorcroft and K.Zhang and E.A. Alvarez and A. Alves de Oliveira and I. Amaral and A. Andrade and L.E.O.C. Aragao and A. Araujo-Murakami and E.J.M.M. Arets and L. Arroyo and G.A. Aymard and C. Baraloto and J. Barroso and D. Bonal and R. Boot and J. Camargo and J. Chave and A. Cogollo and F. Cornejo Valverde and L. da Costa and A. di Fiore and N. Higuchi and E. Honorio and T.J. Killeen and S.G. Laurance and W.F. Laurance and J. Licona and T. Lovejoy and Malhi, Y. and B. Marimon and J.B. Marimon and C. Mendoza and D.A. Neill and G. Pardo and M. Pe{\~n}a-Claros and N.C.A. Pitman and L. Poorter and A. Prieto and H. Ramirez-Angulo and A. Roopsind and A. Rudas and R.P. Salomao and M. Silveira and J. Stropp and H. Ter-Steege and J. Terborgh and R. Thomas and M. Toledo and A. Torres-Lezama and G.M.F. van der Heijden and R. Vasquez and I. Vieira and E. Vilanova and V.A. Vos and T.R. Baker} } @article {1086946, title = {Performance tradeoffs in target-group bias correction for species distribution models}, journal = {Ecography}, year = {2016}, pages = {1-12}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecog.02414/abstract}, author = {Nathan Ranc and Luca Santini and Carlo Rondinini and Luigi Boitani and Francoise Poitevin and Anders Angerbjorn and Luigi Maiorano} } @article {1086926, title = {Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation}, journal = {The Science of Nature}, volume = {103}, year = {2016}, pages = {3-4}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00114-016-1334-7}, author = {L. Ancillotto and L. Santini and N. Ranc and L. Maiorano and D. Russo} } @article {1066916, title = {Monitoring plant functional diversity from space}, journal = {Nature Plants}, year = {2016}, pages = {16024}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nplants201624}, author = {W. Jetz and J. Cavender-Bares and R. Pavlick and D. Schimel and F.W. Davis and G.P. Asner and R. Guralnick and J. Kattge and A.M. Latimer and P. Moorcroft and M.E. Schaepman and M.P. Schildhauer and F.D. Schneider and F. Schrodt and U. Stahl and S.L. Ustin} } @article {1066906, title = {A bias-corrected Data set of Climate Model Outputs at Uniform Space-Time Resolution for Land Surface Modeling over Amazonia}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, year = {2016}, pages = {621-636}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ke_Zhang5/publication/303000608_Bias-corrected_data_sets_of_climate_model_outputs_at_uniform_space-time_resolution_for_land_surface_modelling_over_Amazonia/links/5734f99108ae9f741b2833de/Bias-corrected-data-sets-of-cli}, author = {S. Moghim and S. McKnight and K. Zheng and R.G. Knox and R.L. Bras and Moorcroft, P. R. and J-F. Wang} } @article {1066891, title = {Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, year = {2016}, pages = {191-208}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jin_Wu11/publication/305482039_Do_dynamic_global_vegetation_models_capture_the_seasonality_of_carbon_fluxes_in_the_Amazon_basin_A_data-model_intercomparison/links/57d1991108ae5f03b48ab7d6.pdf}, author = {N. Restrepo-Coupe and Levine, N. M. and Christoffersen, B. O. and L. Albert and J. Wu and M.H.Costa and Galbraith, D. R. and Imbuzeiro, H. M. A. and G. Martins and A.C. da Araujo and Malhi, Y. and X. Zeng and Moorcroft, P. R. and Saleska, S. R.} } @article {822571, title = {When a Tree Dies in the Forest: Scaling Climate-Driven Tree Mortality to Ecosystem Water and Carbon Fluxes}, journal = {Ecosystems}, year = {2016}, month = {28 April 2016}, author = {William R. L. Anderegg and Jordi Martinez-Vilalta and Maxime Cailleret and Jesus Julio Camarero and Brent E. Ewers and David Galbraith and Arthur Gessler and R{\"u}diger Grote and Cho-ying Huang and Shaun R. Levick and Thomas L. Powell and Lucy Rowland and Ra{\'u}l S{\'a}nchez-Salguero and Volodymyr Trotsiuk} } @article {780506, title = {Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate, and land use}, journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles}, volume = {30}, year = {2016}, pages = {18-39}, author = {A.D.A. Castanho and D.Galbraith and K.Zhang and M.T.Coe and M.H.Costa and P. Moorcroft} } @article {769656, title = {Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change}, journal = {PNAS}, volume = {113}, year = {2016}, pages = {793-797}, author = {Levine, N. M. and et. al.} } @article {1366803, title = {Observing the Carbon-Climate System}, journal = {arXiv:1604.02106.}, year = {2015}, author = {D. Schimel and P. Sellers and B. Moore III and A. Chatterjee and D. Baker and J. Berry and K. Bowman and P. Ciais and D. Crisp and S. Crowell and S. Denning and R. Duren and P. Friedlingstein and M. Gierach and K. Gurney and K. Hibbard and R. Houghton and D. Huntzinger and G. Hurtt and K. Jucks and R. Kawa and R. Koster and C. Koven and Y. Luo and J. Masek and G. McKinley and C. Miller and Moorcroft, P. R. and J. Miller and R. Nasser and C. O{\textquoteright}Dell and L. Ott and S. Pawson and M. Pawson and T. Quaife and H. Riris and N. Roman and C. Rousseaux and A. Schuh and E. Shevliakova and Y.P. Wang and Williams, C. and Xiao, X. and T. Yokota} } @article {1086936, title = {Extracting spatio-temporal patterns in animal trajectories: an ecological application of sequence analysis methods}, journal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {7}, year = {2015}, pages = {369-379}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/2041-210X.12453/full}, author = {Johannes De Groeve and Nico Van de Weghe and Nathan Ranc and Tijs Neutens and Lino Ometto and Omar Rota-Stabelli and Francesca Cagnacci} } @article {1086931, title = {MigrO: a plug-in for the analysis of individual mobility behavior based on the stay region model}, journal = {Proceedings of the 23rd SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems}, year = {2015}, pages = {96}, url = {http://delivery.acm.org/10.1145/2830000/2820794/a96-damiani.pdf?ip=128.103.224.4\&id=2820794\&acc=ACTIVE\%20SERVICE\&key=C82FBC3DCC335AD2\%2E4D4702B0C3E38B35\%2E4D4702B0C3E38B35\%2E4D4702B0C3E38B35\&CFID=1004498055\&CFTOKEN=88411561\&__acm__=1510340297_bfb340f1d46d}, author = {Maria Luisa Damiani and Hamza Issa and Giuseppe Fotino and Fatima Hachem and Nathan Ranc and Francesca Cagnacci} } @article {780471, title = {Future deforestation in the Amazon and consequences for South American climate}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {214{\textendash}215}, year = {2015}, pages = {12-24}, author = {Abigail L.S. Swann and Marcos Longo and Ryan G. Knox and Eunjee Lee and Paul R. Moorcroft} } @article {780566, title = {Hydrometeorological effects of historical land-conversion in an ecosystem-atmosphere model of Northern South America}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {19}, year = {2015}, pages = {241-273}, author = {Knox, R. G. and Longo, M. and ALS Swann and Ke Zhang and Levine, N. M. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Bras, R. L.} } @article {751021, title = {Variability of phenology and fluxes of water and carbon with observed and simulated soil moisture in the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model}, journal = {Geosci. Model Dev}, volume = {8}, year = {2015}, pages = {3837{\textendash}3865}, author = {Y. Kim and et. al.} } @article {603041, title = {The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the comingcentury arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2,and land use}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {doi: 10.1111/gcb.12903}, year = {2015}, author = {Ke Zhang and Andrea D. de Almeida Castanho and David R. Galbraith and Sanaz Moghim and Naomi M. Levine and Rafael L. Bras and Michael T. Coe and Marcos H. Costa and Yadvinder Malhi and Marcos Longo and Ryan G. Knox and Shawna McKnight and Jingfeng Wang and Paul R. Moorcroft} } @article {580471, title = {Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses}, journal = {Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,}, volume = {7}, year = {2015}, pages = {7823-7859}, abstract = {

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting changes across the globe. However, changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously may result in complex non-linear responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf and canopy scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (CLM3.5, ED2, JULES, SiB3, and SPA) to simulate the responses of canopy and leaf scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation. There was greater model{\textendash}data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange to changes in temperature, than in the response to temperature of leaf area index (LAI), net photosynthesis (An) and stomatal conductance (gs). Modelled canopy scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf scale fluxes to LAI, and therefore in this study similarities in modelled ecosystem scale responses to drought and temperature were the result of inconsistent leaf scale and LAI responses among models.\ 

Across the models, the response of\ An\ to temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes. Consequently all the models predicted that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 {\textdegree}C colder, closer to the model optima for\ gs. There was however no model consistency in the response of the\ An{\textendash}gs\ relationship when temperature changes and drought were introduced simultaneously. The inconsistencies in the\ An{\textendash}gs\ relationships amongst models were caused by to non-linear model responses induced by simultaneous drought and temperature change. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need more complete validation to improve accuracy and consistency in the scaling of processes from leaf to canopy.

Citation:\ Rowland,\ L., Harper,\ A., Christoffersen,\ B.\ O., Galbraith,\ D.\ R., Imbuzeiro,\ H.\ M.\ A., Powell,\ T.\ L., Doughty,\ C., Levine,\ N.\ M., Malhi,\ Y., Saleska,\ S.\ R., Moorcroft,\ P.\ R., Meir,\ P., and Williams,\ M.: Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 7, 7823-7859, doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-7823-2014, 2014.

}, author = {Rowland, L. and Harper, A. and Christoffersen, B. O. and Galbraith, D. R. and Imbuzeiro, H. M. A. and Powell, T. L. and Doughty, C. and Levine, N. M. and Malhi, Y. and Saleska, S. R. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Meir, P. and Williams, M.} } @article {522506, title = {Imaging spectroscopy- and lidar-derived estimates of canopy composition and structure to improve predictions of forest carbon fluxes and ecosystem dynamics}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {41}, number = {7}, year = {2014}, note = {

Af8rjTimes Cited:2Cited References Count:39

}, month = {Apr 16}, pages = {2535-2542}, abstract = {

The composition and structure of vegetation are key attributes of ecosystems, affecting their current and future carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Information on these attributes has traditionally come from ground-based inventories of the plant canopy within small sample plots. Here we show how imaging spectrometry and waveform lidar can be used to provide spatially comprehensive estimates of forest canopy composition and structure that can improve the accuracy of the carbon flux predictions of a size-structured terrestrial biosphere model, reducing its root-mean-square errors from 85\%-104\% to 37\%-57\%. The improvements are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to those obtained from simulations initialized with ground measurements and approximately double the estimated rate of ecosystem carbon uptake as compared to a potential vegetation simulation. These results suggest that terrestrial biosphere model simulations can utilize modern remote-sensing data on vegetation composition and structure to improve their predictions of the current and near-term future functioning of the terrestrial biosphere.Key PointsPredictions of forest change hampered by errors in current model formulations Remote Sensing can derive fine-scale information on the current ecosystem state Regional carbon fluxes can be constrained using remote sensing derived info

}, keywords = {carbon fluxes, co2, cycle, ecosystem dynamics, exchange, forest structure and composition, harvard forest, height, hyperspectral, lidar, model, nitrogen, sink, variability, vegetation}, isbn = {0094-8276}, author = {Antonarakis, A. S. and Munger, J. W. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {780616, title = {Effects of land-conversion in a biosphere{\textendash}atmosphere model of Northern South America {\textendash} Part 1: Regional differences in hydrometeorology}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions}, volume = {10}, year = {2013}, pages = {15295-15335}, author = {Knox, R. G. and Longo, M. and ALS Swann and Zhang, K. and Levine, N. M. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Bras, R. L.} } @article {780586, title = {Effects of land-conversion in a biosphere{\textendash}atmosphere model of Northern South America {\textendash} Part 2: Case studies on the mechanisms of differential hydrometeorology}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions}, volume = {10}, year = {2013}, pages = {15337-15373}, author = {Knox, R. G. and Longo, M. and ALS Swann and Zhang, K. and Levine, N. M. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Bras, R. L.} } @article {603051, title = {Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south-southeastern Amazonia.}, journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc., B}, volume = {368}, year = {2013}, author = {Michael T. Coe and Toby R. Marthews and Marcos Heil Costa and David R. Galbraith and Nora L. Greenglass and Hewlley M. A. Imbuzeiro and Naomi M. Levine and Yadvinder Malhi and Paul R. Moorcroft and Michel Nobre Muza and Thomas L. Powell and Scott R. Saleska and Luis A. Solorzano and Jingfeng Wang} } @article {603061, title = {Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south -southeastern Amazonia}, journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B}, volume = {368}, year = {2013}, pages = {20120155}, author = {Michael T. Coe and Toby R. Marthews and Marcos Heil Costa and David R. Galbraith and Nora L. Greenglass and Hewlley M. A. Imbuzeiro and Naomi M. Levine and Yadvinder Malhi and Paul R. Moorcroft and Michel Nobre Muza and Thomas L. Powell and Scott R. Saleska and Luis A. Solorzano and Jingfeng Wang} } @article {580526, title = {Observing changing ecological diversity in the Anthropocene}, journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment}, volume = {11}, year = {2013}, pages = {129{\textendash}137}, abstract = {
Observing changing ecological diversity in the Anthropocene
David SSchimel1*,\ Gregory PAsner2, and\ PaulMoorcroft3

As the world enters the Anthropocene {\textendash} a new geologic period, defined by humanity{\textquoteright}s massive impact on the planet {\textendash} the Earth{\textquoteright}s rapidly changing environment is putting critical ecosystem services at risk. To understand and forecast how ecosystems will change over the coming decades, scientists will require an understanding of the sensitivity of species to environmental change. The current distribution of species and functional groups provides valuable information about the performance of various species in different environments. However, when the rate of environmental change is high, information inherent in the ranges of many species will disappear, since that information exists only under more or less steady-state conditions. The amount of information about species{\textquoteright} relationships to climate declines as their distributions move farther from steady state. New remote-sensing technologies can map the chemical and structural traits of plant canopies and will allow for the inference of traits and, in many cases, species{\textquoteright} ranges. Current satellite remote-sensing data can only produce relatively simple classifications, but new techniques will produce data with dramatically higher biological information content.

1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

2Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA;

3Organismic and Evolutionary Biology Department, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA

*()




Read More:\ http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/120111

}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/120111}, author = {Schimel, D.S. and G.P. Asner and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522501, title = {Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought}, journal = {New Phytol}, volume = {200}, number = {2}, year = {2013}, note = {

Sp. Iss. SI220XVTimes Cited:11Cited References Count:54

}, month = {Oct}, pages = {350-364}, abstract = {

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20\% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to droughtintroduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.

}, keywords = {amazon, carbon cycle, Climate, drought, dry season, environment simulator jules, photosynthesis, rain-forest, stomatal conductance, terrestrial biosphere model, throughfall exclusion, tropical forest, tropical rainforest, vegetation dynamics, water fluxes}, isbn = {1469-8137}, author = {Powell, T. L. and Galbraith, D. R. and Christoffersen, B. O. and Harper, A. and Imbuzeiro, H. M. A. and Rowland, L. and Almeida, S. and Brando, P. M. and da Costa, A. C. L. and Costa, M. H. and Levine, N. M. and Malhi, Y. and Saleska, S. R. and Sotta, E. and Williams, M. and Meir, P. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522496, title = {Movement Responses of Caribou to Human-Induced Habitat Edges Lead to Their Aggregation near Anthropogenic Features}, journal = {Am Nat}, volume = {181}, number = {6}, year = {2013}, note = {

145EFTimes Cited:7Cited References Count:67

}, month = {Jun}, pages = {827-836}, abstract = {

The assessment of disturbance effects on wildlife and resulting mitigation efforts are founded on edge-effect theory. According to the classical view, the abundance of animals affected by human disturbance should increase monotonically with distance from disturbed areas to reach a maximum at remote locations. Here we show that distance-dependent movement taxis can skew abundance distributions toward disturbed areas. We develop an advection-diffusion model based on basic movement behavior commonly observed in animal populations and parameterize the model from observations on radio-collared caribou in a boreal ecosystem. The model predicts maximum abundance at 3.7 km from cutovers and roads. Consistently, aerial surveys conducted over 161,920 km(2) showed that the relative probability of caribou occurrence displays nonmonotonic changes with the distance to anthropogenic features, with a peak occurring at 4.5 km away from these features. This aggregation near disturbed areas thus provides the predators of this top-down-controlled, threatened herbivore species with specific locations to concentrate their search. The edge-effect theory developed here thus predicts that human activities should alter animal distribution and food web properties differently than anticipated from the current paradigm. Consideration of such nonmonotonic response to habitat edges may become essential to successful wildlife conservation.

}, keywords = {advection-diffusion model, animal movement, animal movements, behavioral-response, boreal forest, edge effects, forest-dwelling caribou, human disturbance, rangifer-tarandus, resource selection functions, wolf canis-lupus, woodland caribou, yellowstone-national-park}, isbn = {0003-0147}, author = {Fortin, D. and Buono, P. L. and Fortin, A. and Courbin, N. and Gingras, C. T. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Courtois, R. and Dussault, C.} } @article {522486, title = {Mechanistic approaches to understanding and predicting mammalian space use: recent advances, future directions}, journal = {Journal of Mammalogy}, volume = {93}, number = {4}, year = {2012}, note = {

009GNTimes Cited:10Cited References Count:113

}, month = {Aug}, pages = {903-916}, abstract = {

The coming of age of global positioning system telemetry, in conjunction with recent theoretical innovations for formulating quantitative descriptions of how different ecological forces and behavioral mechanisms shape patterns of animal space use, has led to renewed interest and insight into animal home-range patterns. This renaissance is likely to continue as a result of ongoing synergies between these empirical and theoretical advances. In this article I review key developments that have occurred over the past decade that are furthering our understanding of the ecology of animal home ranges. I then outline what I perceive as important future directions for furthering our ability to understand and predict mammalian home-range patterns. Interesting directions for future research include improved insights into the environmental and social context of animal movement decisions and resulting patterns of space use; quantifying the role of memory in animal movement decisions; and examining the relevance of these advances in our understanding of animal movement behavior and space use to questions concerning the demography and abundance of animal populations.

}, keywords = {animal movement, biotelemetry, climate-change, environmental covariates, foraging behavior, global positioning system, global positioning system telemetry, gps collar, habitat selection, home ranges, home-range behavior, mechanistic home-range models, memory, polarimetric radar, population demography, self-attracting walk, trophic mismatch, yellowstone-national-park}, isbn = {0022-2372}, url = {http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.1644/11-MAMM-S-254.1}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522481, title = {Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological SciencesPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological SciencesPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1586}, year = {2012}, note = {

863PMTimes Cited:21Cited References Count:37

}, month = {Jan 19}, pages = {222-235}, abstract = {

Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model{\textquoteright}s predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model{\textquoteright}s predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5 degrees N, 72.1 degrees W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model{\textquoteright}s ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model{\textquoteright}s predictions.

}, keywords = {carbon-cycle, climate-change, drought, ecological prediction, exchange, global vegetation models, inversion, leaf dark respiration, northeastern USA, temperate forests, terrestrial biosphere model evaluation, terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, thermal-acclimation, tree mortality, uncertainty}, isbn = {0962-8436}, author = {Medvigy, D. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522476, title = {Seasonal carbon dynamics and water fluxes in an Amazon rainforest}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, year = {2012}, note = {

909ABTimes Cited:11Cited References Count:49

}, month = {Apr}, pages = {1322-1334}, abstract = {

Satellite-based observations indicate that seasonal patterns in canopy greenness and productivity in the Amazon are negatively correlated with precipitation, with increased greenness occurring during the dry months. Flux tower measurements indicate that the canopy greening that occurs during the dry season is associated with increases in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Land surface and terrestrial biosphere model simulations for the region have predicted the opposite of these observed patterns, with significant declines in greenness, NEP, and ET during the dry season. In this study, we address this issue mainly by developing an empirically constrained, light-controlled phenology submodel within the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2). The constrained ED2 model with a suite of field observations shows markedly improved predictions of seasonal ecosystem dynamics, more accurately capturing the observed patterns of seasonality in water, carbon, and litter fluxes seen at the Tapajos National Forest, Brazil (2.86 degrees S, 54.96 degrees W). Long-term simulations indicate that this light-controlled phenology increases the resilience of Amazon forest NEP to interannual variability in climate forcing.

}, keywords = {amazon, biosphere, Climate, consequences, Ecosystem, ecosystem model, evapotranspiration, light-controlled phenology, model, net ecosystem productivity, predictions, root turnover, root water uptake, trees, tropical forest, tropical forests, vegetation dynamics}, isbn = {1354-1013}, author = {Kim, Y. and Knox, R. G. and Longo, M. and Medvigy, D. and Hutyra, L. R. and Pyle, E. H. and Wofsy, S. C. and Bras, R. L. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522471, title = {Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests}, journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1744}, year = {2012}, note = {

998LCTimes Cited:7Cited References Count:32

}, month = {Oct 7}, pages = {3923-3931}, abstract = {

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

}, keywords = {amazon rain-forest, biomass, Climate, climate change, climate variability, dynamics, forest demography, forest dynamics, plots, surface, tree growth rates, tropical forest}, isbn = {0962-8452}, author = {Dong, S. X. and Davies, S. J. and Ashton, P. S. and Bunyavejchewin, S. and Supardi, M. N. N. and Kassim, A. R. and Tan, S. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522466, title = {An ecosystem-scale model for the spread of a host-specific forest pathogen in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem}, journal = {Ecol Appl}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, year = {2011}, note = {

776LETimes Cited:7Cited References Count:35

}, month = {Jun}, pages = {1138-1153}, abstract = {

The introduction of nonnative pathogens is altering the scale, magnitude, and persistence of forest disturbance regimes in the western United States. In the high-altitude whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) is an introduced fungal pathogen that is now the principal cause of tree mortality in many locations. Although blister rust eradication has failed in the past, there is nonetheless substantial interest in monitoring the disease and its rate of progression in order to predict the future impact of forest disturbances within this critical ecosystem.This study integrates data from five different field-monitoring campaigns from 1968 to 2008 to create a blister rust infection model for sites located throughout the GYE. Our model parameterizes the past rates of blister rust spread in order to project its future impact on high-altitude whitebark pine forests. Because the process of blister rust infection and mortality of individuals occurs over the time frame of many years, the model in this paper operates on a yearly time step and defines a series of whitebark pine infection classes: susceptible, slightly infected, moderately infected, and dead. In our analysis, we evaluate four different infection models that compare local vs. global density dependence on the dynamics of blister rust infection. We compare models in which blister rust infection is: (1) independent of the density of infected trees, (2) locally density-dependent, (3) locally density-dependent with a static global infection rate among all sites, and (4) both locally and globally density-dependent. Model evaluation through the predictive loss criterion for Bayesian analysis supports the model that is both locally and globally density-dependent. Using this best-fit model, we predicted the average residence times for the four stages of blister rust infection in our model, and we found that, on average, whitebark pine trees within the GYE remain susceptible for 6.7 years, take 10.9 years to transition from slightly infected to moderately infected, and take 9.4 years to transition from moderately infected to dead. Using our best-fit model, we project the future levels of blister rust infestation in the GYE at critical sites over the next 20 years.

}, keywords = {1st report, alternate hosts, bayesian statistics, beetle, blister rust, climate-change, cronartium ribicola, cronartium-ribicola, epidemiology, greater yellowstone ecosystem, nonnative pathogen, north-america, pathogen modeling, pedicularis, pine blister rust, pinus albicaulis, severity, white-pine, whitebark pine}, isbn = {1051-0761}, author = {Hatala, J. A. and Dietze, M. C. and Crabtree, R. L. and Kendall, K. and Six, D. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522461, title = {Tree mortality in the eastern and central United States: patterns and drivers}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, year = {2011}, note = {

836UATimes Cited:25Cited References Count:75

}, month = {Nov}, pages = {3312-3326}, abstract = {

Substantial uncertainty surrounds how forest ecosystems will respond to the simultaneous impacts of multiple global change drivers. Long-term forest dynamics are sensitive to changes in tree mortality rates; however, we lack an understanding of the relative importance of the factors that affect tree mortality across different spatial and temporal scales. We used the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis database to evaluate the drivers of tree mortality for eastern temperate forest at the individual-level across spatial scales from tree to landscape to region. We investigated 13 covariates in four categories: climate, air pollutants, topography, and stand characteristics. Overall, we found that tree mortality was most sensitive to stand characteristics and air pollutants. Different functional groups also varied considerably in their sensitivity to environmental drivers. This research highlights the importance of considering the interactions among multiple global change agents in shaping forest ecosystems.

}, keywords = {acid rain, acidic deposition, bayesian logistic regression, Climate, climate-change, dependent mortality, drought, forest inventory and analysis, growth, hardwood forest, models, nitrogen deposition, ozone, plant functional type, semiparametric approach, survival analysis, topographic moisture, vegetation dynamics}, isbn = {1354-1013}, author = {Dietze, M. C. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522456, title = {Using Lidar and Radar measurements to constrain predictions of forest ecosystem structure and function}, journal = {Ecol Appl}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, year = {2011}, note = {

Antonarakis, Alexander SSaatchi, Sassan SChazdon, Robin LMoorcroft, Paul RengResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.2011/07/22 06:00Ecol Appl. 2011 Jun;21(4):1120-37.

}, month = {Jun}, pages = {1120-37}, abstract = {

Insights into vegetation and aboveground biomass dynamics within terrestrial ecosystems have come almost exclusively from ground-based forest inventories that are limited in their spatial extent. Lidar and synthetic-aperture Radar are promising remote-sensing-based techniques for obtaining comprehensive measurements of forest structure at regional to global scales. In this study we investigate how Lidar-derived forest heights and Radar-derived aboveground biomass can be used to constrain the dynamics of the ED2 terrestrial biosphere model. Four-year simulations initialized with Lidar and Radar structure variables were compared against simulations initialized from forest-inventory data and output from a long-term potential-vegtation simulation. Both height and biomass initializations from Lidar and Radar measurements significantly improved the representation of forest structure within the model, eliminating the bias of too many large trees that arose in the potential-vegtation-initialized simulation. The Lidar and Radar initializations decreased the proportion of larger trees estimated by the potential vegetation by approximately 20-30\%, matching the forest inventory. This resulted in improved predictions of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes and structural dynamics compared to predictions from the potential-vegtation simulation. The Radar initialization produced biomass values that were 75\% closer to the forest inventory, with Lidar initializations producing canopy height values closest to the forest inventory. Net primary production values for the Radar and Lidar initializations were around 6-8\% closer to the forest inventory. Correcting the Lidar and Radar initializations for forest composition resulted in improved biomass and basal-area dynamics as well as leaf-area index. Correcting the Lidar and Radar initializations for forest composition and fine-scale structure by combining the remote-sensing measurements with ground-based inventory data further improved predictions, suggesting that further improvements of structural and carbon-flux metrics will also depend on obtaining reliable estimates of forest composition and accurate representation of the fine-scale vertical and horizontal structure of plant canopies.

}, keywords = {*Ecosystem, *Radar, biomass, canopy height, Carbon, Carbon/metabolism, costa rica, costa-rica, ecosystem demography, ecosystem modeling, forest composition, forest structure, la selva biological station, lidar, model, nasa{\textquoteright}s desdyni mission, net primary production, npp, old-growth, radar, rain-forests, reducing modeling error, Remote Sensing Technology/*methods, sar interferometry, Time Factors, Trees/*physiology, tropical trees, vegetation, wood density}, isbn = {1051-0761 (Print)1051-0761 (Linking)}, author = {Antonarakis, A. S. and Saatchi, S. S. and Chazdon, R. L. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522441, title = {Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1550}, year = {2010}, note = {

612SMTimes Cited:69Cited References Count:158

}, month = {Jul 27}, pages = {2289-2301}, abstract = {

While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through {\textquoteright}spatially informed{\textquoteright} movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra-and interspecific interaction.

}, keywords = {demography, Dispersal, dispersal behavior, habitat selection, heterogeneous landscapes, invading organisms, lagopus-lagopus-scoticus, metapopulation dynamics, perfect mixing, predator-prey dynamics, redistribution kernels, serengeti wildebeest, spatial ecology, spatially structured populations, territorial behavior, time budgets}, isbn = {0962-8436}, author = {Morales, J. M. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Matthiopoulos, J. and Frair, J. L. and Kie, J. G. and Powell, R. A. and Merrill, E. H. and Haydon, D. T.} } @article {522411, title = {Climatic controls of interannual variability in regional carbon fluxes from top-down and bottom-up perspectives}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences}, volume = {115}, year = {2010}, note = {

590WTTimes Cited:18Cited References Count:65

}, month = {May 1}, abstract = {

Observations of regional net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO(2) for 1997-2007 were analyzed for climatic controls on interannual variability (IAV). Quantifying IAV of regional (10(4)-10(6) km(2)) NEE over long time periods is key to understanding potential feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle. Four independent techniques estimated monthly regional NEE for 10(4) km(2) in a spatially heterogeneous temperate-boreal transition region of the north central United States, centered on the Park Falls, Wisconsin, United States, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tall tower site. These techniques included two bottom-up methods, based on flux tower upscaling and forest inventory based demographic modeling, respectively, and two top-down methods, based on tall tower equilibrium boundary layer budgets and tracer-transport inversion, respectively. While all four methods revealed a moderate carbon sink, they diverged significantly in magnitude. Coherence of relative magnitude and variability of NEE anomalies was strong across the methods. The strongest coherence was a trend of declining carbon sink since 2002. Most climatic controls were not strongly correlated with IAV. Significant controls on IAV were those related to hydrology, such as water table depth, and atmospheric CO(2). Weaker relationships were found with phenological controls such as autumn soil temperature. Hydrologic relationships were strongest with a 1 year lag, potentially highlighting a previously unrecognized predictor of IAV in this region. These results highlight a need for continued development of techniques to estimate regional IAV and incorporation of hydrologic cycling into couple carbon-climate models.

}, keywords = {atmospheric boundary-layer, co2, dioxide fluxes, net ecosystem exchange, northern wisconsin forest, tall tower, transport models, upper midwest, vegetation, water-vapor}, isbn = {0148-0227}, author = {Desai, A. R. and Helliker, B. R. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Andrews, A. E. and Berry, J. A.} } @article {522451, title = {A clumped-foliage canopy radiative transfer model for a Global Dynamic Terrestrial Ecosystem Model II: Comparison to measurements}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {150}, number = {7-8}, year = {2010}, note = {

627XMTimes Cited:10Cited References Count:41

}, month = {Jul 15}, pages = {895-907}, abstract = {

In a previous paper, we developed an analytical clumped two-stream model (ACTS) of canopy radiative transfer from an analytical geometric-optical and radiative transfer (GORT) scheme (Ni-Meister et al., 2010). The ACTS model accounts for clumping of foliage and the influence of trunks in vegetation canopies for modeling of photosynthesis, radiative fluxes and surface albedo in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and particularly for the Ent Dynamic Global Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DGTEM). This study evaluates the gap probability and transmittance estimates from the ACTS model by comparing the modeled results with ground-based data, as well as with the original full GORT model and a layered Beer{\textquoteright}s law scheme. The ground data used in this study include vertical profile measurements of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in (1) mixed deciduous forests in Morgan-Monroe State Forest, IN, USA, (2) coniferous forests in central Canada, (3) mixed deciduous forests in Harvard Forest, MA, and (4) ground lidar measurements of the canopy gap fraction in woodland in Australia.The model comparisons with these measurements demonstrate that the ACTS model achieves better or similar performance compared to the full GORT and the layered Beer{\textquoteright}s law schemes with regard to agreements with field measurements and computational cost. The ACTS model has excellent accuracy and flexibility to model the canopy gap probability and transmittance for various forest scenarios. Also, it has advantages relative to the currently widely used two-stream scheme through better radiation estimation for photosynthesis by accounting for the impact of both vertical and horizontal structure heterogeneity of complex vegetation on radiative transfer. Currently the ACTS is being implemented in Ent and will be further tested for how it improves surface energy balance and carbon flux estimates. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

}, keywords = {canopy radiative transfer, co2, comparison to measurements, deciduous forest, fluxes, foliage clumping, leaf-area index, midlatitude forest, modis, parameters, satellite data, us carbon sink, vegetation structure}, isbn = {0168-1923}, author = {Yang, W. Z. and Ni-Meister, W. and Kiang, N. Y. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Strahler, A. H. and Oliphant, A.} } @article {522431, title = {The home-range concept: are traditional estimators still relevant with modern telemetry technology?}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1550}, year = {2010}, note = {

612SMTimes Cited:83Cited References Count:101

}, month = {Jul 27}, pages = {2221-2231}, abstract = {

Recent advances in animal tracking and telemetry technology have allowed the collection of location data at an ever-increasing rate and accuracy, and these advances have been accompanied by the development of new methods of data analysis for portraying space use, home ranges and utilization distributions. New statistical approaches include data-intensive techniques such as kriging and nonlinear generalized regression models for habitat use. In addition, mechanistic home-range models, derived from models of animal movement behaviour, promise to offer new insights into how home ranges emerge as the result of specific patterns of movements by individuals in response to their environment. Traditional methods such as kernel density estimators are likely to remain popular because of their ease of use. Large datasets make it possible to apply these methods over relatively short periods of time such as weeks or months, and these estimates may be analysed using mixed effects models, offering another approach to studying temporal variation in space-use patterns. Although new technologies open new avenues in ecological research, our knowledge of why animals use space in the ways we observe will only advance by researchers using these new technologies and asking new and innovative questions about the empirical patterns they observe.

}, keywords = {animal movements, black bears, global positioning system, gps, habitat selection, home ranges, kernel density estimators, mechanistic models, resource selection functions, space use, spatial-distribution, squares cross-validation, telemetry, utilization distributions, white-tailed deer}, isbn = {0962-8436}, author = {Kie, J. G. and Matthiopoulos, J. and Fieberg, J. and Powell, R. A. and Cagnacci, F. and Mitchell, M. S. and Gaillard, J. M. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522416, title = {Landscape-scale patterns of forest pest and pathogen damage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {114}, number = {2}, year = {2010}, note = {

553MFTimes Cited:8Cited References Count:59

}, month = {Feb 15}, pages = {375-384}, abstract = {

Pathogen and pest outbreaks are recognized as key processes in the dynamics of Western forest ecosystems, yet the spatial patterns of stress and mortality are often complex and difficult to describe in an explicit spatial context, especially when considering the concurrent effects of multiple agents. Blister rust, a fungal pathogen, and mountain pine beetle, an insect pest, are two dominant sources of stress and mortality to high-altitude whitebark pine within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In whitebark pine populations infested with blister rust or mountain pine beetle, the shift from green to red needles at the outer-most branches is an early sign of stress and infestation. In this analysis, we investigated a method that combines field surveys with a remote sensing classification and spatial analysis to differentiate the effects of these two agents of stress and mortality within whitebark pine. Hyperspectral remotely sensed images from the airborne HyMap sensor were classifled to determine the locations of stress and mortality in whitebark pine crowns through sub-pixel mixture-tuned matched-filter analysis in three areas of the GYE in September 2000 and July 2006. Differences in the spatial pattern of blister rust and mountain pine beetle infestation allowed us to separate areas dominated by mountain pine beetle versus blister rust by examining changes in the spatial scale of significant stress and mortality clusters computed by the Ripley{\textquoteright}s K algorithm. At two field sites the distance between clusters of whitebark pine stress and mortality decreased from 2000 to 2006, indicating domination by the patchy spatial pattern of blister rust infestation. At another site, the distance between significant stress and mortality clusters increased from 2000 to 2006, indicating that the contiguous pattern of mountain pine beetle infestation was the primary source of disturbance. Analysis of these spatial stress and mortality patterns derived from remote sensing yields insight to the relative importance of blister rust and mountain pine beetle dynamics in the landscape. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

}, keywords = {blister rust, clark nutcracker, dynamics, fir forest, hyperspectral imagery, k-function, mortality, mountain pine beetle, pine-beetle infestation, remote sensing, ripley{\textquoteright}s k, spatial-patterns, whitebark pine, whitebark-pine}, isbn = {0034-4257}, author = {Hatala, J. A. and Crabtree, R. L. and Halligan, K. Q. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522421, title = {Linking models and data on vegetation structure}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences}, volume = {115}, year = {2010}, note = {

610LCTimes Cited:13Cited References Count:43

}, month = {Jun 8}, abstract = {

For more than a century, scientists have recognized the importance of vegetation structure in understanding forest dynamics. Now future satellite missions such as Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) hold the potential to provide unprecedented global data on vegetation structure needed to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here, we briefly review the uses of data on vegetation structure in ecosystem models, develop and analyze theoretical models to quantify model-data requirements, and describe recent progress using a mechanistic modeling approach utilizing a formal scaling method and data on vegetation structure to improve model predictions. Generally, both limited sampling and coarse resolution averaging lead to model initialization error, which in turn is propagated in subsequent model prediction uncertainty and error. In cases with representative sampling, sufficient resolution, and linear dynamics, errors in initialization tend to compensate at larger spatial scales. However, with inadequate sampling, overly coarse resolution data or models, and nonlinear dynamics, errors in initialization lead to prediction error. A robust model-data framework will require both models and data on vegetation structure sufficient to resolve important environmental gradients and tree-level heterogeneity in forest structure globally.

}, keywords = {dynamics, ecosystem process models, forest productivity, future, land-use change, lidar data, scale, us carbon sink}, isbn = {0148-0227}, author = {Hurtt, G. C. and Fisk, J. and Thomas, R. Q. and Dubayah, R. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Shugart, H. H.} } @article {522406, title = {Predicting the impact of hemlock woolly adelgid on carbon dynamics of eastern United States forests}, journal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche ForestiereCanadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche ForestiereCanadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere}, volume = {40}, number = {1}, year = {2010}, note = {

549POTimes Cited:22Cited References Count:48

}, month = {Jan}, pages = {119-133}, abstract = {

The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA Adelges tsugae Annand) is ail introduced insect pest that threatens to decimate eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carriere) populations. In this study, we used the ecosystem demography model in conjunction with a stochastic model of HWA spread to predict the impact of HWA infestation oil the current and future forest composition, Structure, and carbon (C) dynamics in the eastern United States. The spread model predicted that oil average the hemlock stands south and east of the Great Lakes would be infested by 2015, southern Michigan would be reached by 2020, and northeastern Minnesota by 2030. For the period 2000-2040, the ecosystem demography model predicted a mean reduction of 0.011 Pg C.year(-1) (Pg C = 10(15) g C), in 8\% decrease, in the uptake of carbon from eastern United States forests as a result of HWA-caused mortality, followed by an increased uptake of 0.015 Pg C.year(-1) (a 12\% increase) in the period 2040-2100, as the area recovers from the loss of hemlock. Overall. we conclude that while locally severe, HWA infestation is unlikely to have a significant impact oil the regional patterns of carbon fluxes, given that eastern hemlock represents a limited friction of the standing biomass of eastern forests and that it has relatively low productivity compared with the tree species that are likely to replace it.

}, keywords = {biological invasions, consequences, disturbance, dominated forests, homoptera, infestation, low-temperatures, southern new-england, tsuga-canadensis, vegetation dynamics}, isbn = {0045-5067}, author = {Albani, M. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Ellison, A. M. and Orwig, D. A. and Foster, D. R.} } @article {522436, title = {Responses of terrestrial ecosystems and carbon budgets to current and future environmental variability}, journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci USA}, volume = {107}, number = {18}, year = {2010}, note = {

591OKTimes Cited:33Cited References Count:45

}, month = {May 4}, pages = {8275-8280}, abstract = {

We assess the significance of high-frequency variability of environmental parameters (sunlight, precipitation, temperature) for the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems under current and future climate. We examine the influence of hourly, daily, and monthly variance using the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 in conjunction with the long-term record of carbon fluxes measured at Harvard Forest. We find that fluctuations of sunlight and precipitation are strongly and nonlinearly coupled to ecosystem function, with effects that accumulate through annual and decadal timescales. Increasing variability in sunlight and precipitation leads to lower rates of carbon sequestration and favors broad-leaved deciduous trees over conifers. Temperature variability has only minor impacts by comparison. We also find that projected changes in sunlight and precipitation variability have important implications for carbon storage and ecosystem structure and composition. Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model estimates for changes in high-frequency meteorological variability over the next 100 years, we expect that terrestrial ecosystems will be affected by changes in variability almost as much as by changes in mean climate. We conclude that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to high-frequency meteorological variability, and that accurate knowledge of the statistics of this variability is essential for realistic predictions of ecosystem structure and functioning.

}, keywords = {atmospheric data, carbon fluxes, climate variability, climate-ecosystem models, co2, cycle feedbacks, harvard forest, land-surface, model, photosynthesis, precipitation, reanalysis, Temperature, terrestrial biosphere}, isbn = {0027-8424}, author = {Medvigy, D. and Wofsy, S. C. and Munger, J. W. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522426, title = {Simulating boreal forest dynamics from perspectives of ecophysiology, resource availability, and climate change}, journal = {Ecological Research}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, year = {2010}, note = {

595FMTimes Cited:5Cited References Count:48

}, month = {May}, pages = {501-511}, abstract = {

Boreal forests are under strong influences from climate change, and alterations in forest dynamics will have significant impacts on global climate-biosphere feedback as well as local to regional conservation and resource management. To understand the mechanisms of forest dynamics and to assess the fate of boreal forests, simulation studies should be based on plant ecophysiological responses onto environmental conditions. In central Canadian boreal forests, local geomorphology created by past glacial activities often generates a mosaic of very distinctive forest types. On sandy hilltop of a glacial till, due to limitations in moisture availability and short fire return intervals, drought-tolerant and fire-adapted jack pine usually becomes the dominant species. On mesic and nutrient-rich slopes, fast-growing and resource-demanding trembling aspen forms mixed forests with coniferous species. In bottomland, black spruce, slowly growing but tolerant species, is often the only species that can survive to the adult stage. These three very distinctive forest types often occur within a scale of 10 m. Simulation models of boreal forests should be able to reproduce this heterogeneity in forest structure and composition as an emergent property of plant ecophysiological responses to varying environmental properties. In this study, a process-based forest dynamics model, ecosystem demography model version 1.0, is used to mechanically reproduce the landscape heterogeneity due to edaphic variations. First, boreal tree species of northern Manitoba, Canada, are parameterized according to field observations, and, to explicitly capture interactions among tree saplings, allometric equations based on diameter at height of 0.15 m, instead of the conventional breast height of 1.37 m, is parameterized. Then, soil moisture regime and nutrient concentrations are statistically incorporated from a dataset. The resultant simulation successfully reproduces the distinctive forest dynamics influenced by the edaphic heterogeneity. The sequences of succession and the trajectories of forest development are generally consistent with the field observations. The differences in resource availability are the essential control on equilibrium values of total forest leaf area index. Next, to show the effect of anthropogenic atmospheric changes, changes in temperature and CO2 concentrations are studied by a set of factorial experiments. The magnitude of CO2 fertilization is largely affected by soil fertility. The temperature rise will increase the length of growing season, but can have a negative impact on forest growth by increasing aridity and autotrophic respiration. Overall, the boreal forest responses to climate change are complex due to the inherent edaphic variations and ecophysiological responses.

}, keywords = {atmosphere, black spruce, black spruce (picea mariana), boreal forest, disturbance, diversity, ecophysiology, ecosystems, equations, fertilization, fire, forest dynamics, global vegetation model, heterogeneity, simulation modeling, variability}, isbn = {0912-3814}, author = {Ise, T. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522446, title = {Stochastic modelling of animal movement}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1550}, year = {2010}, note = {

612SMTimes Cited:56Cited References Count:117

}, month = {Jul 27}, pages = {2201-2211}, abstract = {

Modern animal movement modelling derives from two traditions. Lagrangian models, based on random walk behaviour, are useful for multi-step trajectories of single animals. Continuous Eulerian models describe expected behaviour, averaged over stochastic realizations, and are usefully applied to ensembles of individuals. We illustrate three modern research arenas. (i) Models of homerange formation describe the process of an animal {\textquoteright}settling down{\textquoteright}, accomplished by including one or more focal points that attract the animal{\textquoteright}s movements. (ii) Memory-based models are used to predict how accumulated experience translates into biased movement choices, employing reinforced random walk behaviour, with previous visitation increasing or decreasing the probability of repetition. (iii) Levy movement involves a step-length distribution that is over-dispersed, relative to standard probability distributions, and adaptive in exploring new environments or searching for rare targets. Each of these modelling arenas implies more detail in the movement pattern than general models of movement can accommodate, but realistic empiric evaluation of their predictions requires dense locational data, both in time and space, only available with modern GPS telemetry.

}, keywords = {elk cervus-elaphus, eulerian models, fat-tailed dispersal, flight search patterns, foraging movements, habitat selection, home range, home-range models, lagrangian models, levy, memory, reinforced random-walks, state-space models, stochastic movement modelling, utilization distributions, wandering albatrosses}, isbn = {0962-8436}, author = {Smouse, P. E. and Focardi, S. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Kie, J. G. and Forester, J. D. and Morales, J. M.} } @inbook {580601, title = {Biodiversity Patterns in managed and natural landscapes}, booktitle = {The Princeton Guide to Ecology}, year = {2009}, pages = {445-457}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, organization = {Princeton University Press}, address = {Princeton, NJ}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R.}, editor = {Simon A. Levin} } @article {522401, title = {Mechanistic scaling of ecosystem function and dynamics in space and time: Ecosystem Demography model version 2}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences}, volume = {114}, year = {2009}, note = {

396YLTimes Cited:87Cited References Count:70

}, month = {Jan 17}, abstract = {

Insights into how terrestrial ecosystems affect the Earth{\textquoteright}s response to changes in climate and rising atmospheric CO(2) levels rely heavily on the predictions of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). These models contain detailed mechanistic representations of biological processes affecting terrestrial ecosystems; however, their ability to simultaneously predict field-based measurements of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes has remained largely untested. In this study, we address this issue by developing a constrained implementation of a new structured TBM, the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2), which explicitly tracks the dynamics of fine-scale ecosystem structure and function. Carbon and water flux measurements from an eddy-flux tower are used in conjunction with forest inventory measurements of tree growth and mortality at Harvard Forest (42.5 degrees N, 72.1 degrees W) to estimate a number of important but weakly constrained model parameters. Evaluation against a decade of tower flux and forest dynamics measurements shows that the constrained ED2 model yields greatly improved predictions of annual net ecosystem productivity, carbon partitioning, and growth and mortality dynamics of both hardwood and conifer trees. The generality of the model formulation is then evaluated by comparing the model{\textquoteright}s predictions against measurements from two other eddy-flux towers and forest inventories of the northeastern United States and Quebec. Despite the markedly different composition throughout this region, the optimized model realistically predicts observed patterns of carbon fluxes and tree growth. These results demonstrate how TBMs parameterized with field-based measurements can provide quantitative insight into the underlying biological processes governing ecosystem composition, structure, and function at larger scales.

}, keywords = {carbon-dioxide, climate-change, eddy covariance measurements, leaf nitrogen, long-term, maintenance respiration, midlatitude forest, nonlinear inversion, terrestrial biosphere model, vegetation dynamics}, isbn = {0148-0227}, author = {Medvigy, D. and Wofsy, S. C. and Munger, J. W. and Hollinger, D. Y. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @inbook {580621, title = {Animal Home Ranges}, booktitle = {Encyclopedia of Ecology}, volume = {1}, year = {2008}, pages = {174-180}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, address = {New York}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R.}, editor = {Sven Erik J{\o}rgensen} } @article {580616, title = {Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon "dieback"}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (B)}, volume = {363 }, year = {2008}, pages = {1857-1864}, author = {Huntingford, C and Fisher, RA and Mercado, L and Booth, BBB and Sitch, S and Harris, PP and Cox, PM and Jones, CD and Betts, RA and Yadvinder, M and Harris, GR and Mat, C and Moorcroft, P} } @article {522376, title = {Analytic steady-state space use patterns and rapid computations in mechanistic home range analysis}, journal = {Journal of Mathematical Biology}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, year = {2008}, note = {

286MFTimes Cited:7Cited References Count:24

}, month = {Jul}, pages = {139-159}, abstract = {

Mechanistic home range models are important tools in modeling animal dynamics in spatially complex environments. We introduce a class of stochastic models for animal movement in a habitat of varying preference. Such models interpolate between spatially implicit resource selection analysis (RSA) and advection-diffusion models, possessing these two models as limiting cases. We find a closed-form solution for the steady-state (equilibrium) probability distribution u* using a factorization of the redistribution operator into symmetric and diagonal parts. How space use is controlled by the habitat preference function w depends on the characteristic width of the animals{\textquoteright} redistribution kernel: when the redistribution kernel is wide relative to variation in w, u*. w, whereas when it is narrow relative to variation in w, u* alpha w(2). In addition, we analyze the behavior at discontinuities in w which occur at habitat type boundaries, and simulate the dynamics of space use given two-dimensional prey-availability data, exploring the effect of the redistribution kernel width. Our factorization allows such numerical simulations to be done extremely fast; we expect this to aid the computationally intensive task of model parameter fitting and inverse modeling.

}, keywords = {advection-diffusion, elk, habitat selection, home range, markov, mechanistic, models, movements, populations, resource selection analysis, space use, territories, yellowstone-national-park}, isbn = {0303-6812}, author = {Barnett, A. H. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522381, title = {High sensitivity of peat decomposition to climate change through water-table feedback}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, volume = {1}, number = {11}, year = {2008}, note = {

374DUTimes Cited:94Cited References Count:30

}, month = {Nov}, pages = {763-766}, abstract = {

Historically, northern peatlands have functioned as a carbon sink, sequestering large amounts of soil organic carbon, mainly due to low decomposition in cold, largely waterlogged soils(1,2). The water table, an essential determinant of soil-organic-carbon dynamics(3-10), interacts with soil organic carbon. Because of the high water-holding capacity of peat and its low hydraulic conductivity, accumulation of soil organic carbon raises the water table, which lowers decomposition rates of soil organic carbon in a positive feedback loop. This two-way interaction between hydrology and biogeochemistry has been noted(3,5-8), but is not reproduced in process-based simulations(9). Here we present simulations with a coupled physical-biogeochemical soil model with peat depths that are continuously updated from the dynamic balance of soil organic carbon. Our model reproduces dynamics of shallow and deep peatlands in northern Manitoba, Canada, on both short and longer timescales. We find that the feedback between the water table and peat depth increases the sensitivity of peat decomposition to temperature, and intensifies the loss of soil organic carbon in a changing climate. In our long-term simulation, an experimental warming of 4 degrees C causes a 40\% loss of soil organic carbon from the shallow peat and 86\% from the deep peat. We conclude that peatlands will quickly respond to the expected warming in this century by losing labile soil organic carbon during dry periods.

}, keywords = {bog growth, canada, carbon-cycle, dynamics, limits, model, peatlands, responses, soil organic-matter, Temperature}, isbn = {1752-0894}, author = {Ise, T. and Dunn, A. L. and Wofsy, S. C. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522396, title = {Mechanistic home range models and resource selection analysis: A reconciliation and unification}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {4}, year = {2008}, note = {

296XWTimes Cited:36Cited References Count:19

}, month = {Apr}, pages = {1112-1119}, abstract = {

In the three decades since its introduction, resource selection analysis (RSA) has become a widespread method for analyzing spatial patterns of animal relocations obtained from telemetry studies. Recently, mechanistic home range models have been proposed as an alternative framework for studying patterns of animal space-use. In contrast to RSA models, mechanistic home range models are derived from underlying mechanistic descriptions of individual movement behavior and yield spatially explicit predictions for patterns of animal space-use. In addition, their mechanistic underpinning means that, unlike RSA, mechanistic home range models can also be used to predict changes in space-use following perturbation. In this paper, we develop a formal reconciliation between these two methods of home range analysis, showing how differences in the habitat preferences of individuals give rise to spatially explicit patterns of space-use. The resulting unified framework combines the simplicity of resource selection analysis with the spatially explicit and predictive capabilities of mechanistic home range models.

}, keywords = {habitat selection, home range analysis, mechanistic home range models, resource selection analysis, rsa, spatially explicit space-use}, isbn = {0012-9658}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R. and Barnett, A.} } @article {522386, title = {Quantifying local factors in medium-frequency trends of tree ring records: Case study in Canadian boreal forests}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {256}, number = {1-2}, year = {2008}, note = {

325YMTimes Cited:4Cited References Count:44

}, month = {Jul 10}, pages = {99-105}, abstract = {

Growth rings of a tree are simultaneously affected by various environmental constraints, including regional factors such as climate fluctuations and also local, gap-scale dynamics such as competition and stochastic mortality of neighbor trees. Although these local effects are often discarded by dendroclimatologists as random variation, the dendroecological trends may provide valuable information on past forest dynamics. Since dendroecological trends arising from local stand dynamics often have medium-term frequencies with persistence of several years to a few decades, it is Usually difficult to separate local, gap-scale forcings from regional, medium-frequency forcings such as El Nino Southern Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, conventional dendroecological practices have failed to analyze the continuously changing medium frequency trends. In this study, a continuous index of medium-frequency dendrochronological trends was developed, by generalizing previous analytical methods that evaluate relative changes using moving averages. This method was then tested against a tree ring dataset from a site with a known history of release and suppression due to a hurricane disturbance. To quantify the effects of local gap dynamics against the regional, often climatic effects, increments cores of black spruce (Picea mariana) were sampled from boreal forests in Saskatchewan, Canada, using a stratified sampling design. Assuming that regional forcings affect trees in the given stand homogeneously, the relative effect of stochastic heterogeneity within stand was quantified. The results closely agreed with conventional dendrochronological observations. In closed-canopy stands, stochastic local effects explained 12.9-35.4\% of the variation in tree ring widths, because interactions between neighbor trees were likely to be intense. In open-canopy stands, on the other hand, the proportion of explained variance was 1.4-10.2\%, reflecting the less-intense local tree interactions in low-density stands. These advancements in statistical analysis and study design will help ecologists and paleoclimatologists to objectively evaluate the effects of climate fluctuations, relative to the effects of local, ecological interactions. Moreover, forest managers can apply concepts of filtering medium-frequency trends to assess release and suppression caused by forest management practices, such as selective cutting and forest thinning. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

}, keywords = {black spruce (picea mariana), boreal forest, Climate, dendrochronology, dendroclimatology, dendroecology, environments, pine, radial-growth, reconstructions, responses, stand dynamics, time-series, variability}, isbn = {0378-1127}, author = {Ise, T. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522391, title = {A spatiotemporal Ripley{\textquoteright}s K-function to analyze interactions between spruce budworm and fire in British Columbia, Canada}, journal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research}, volume = {38}, number = {12}, year = {2008}, note = {

386UYTimes Cited:10Cited References Count:33

}, month = {Dec}, pages = {3112-3119}, abstract = {

In this paper, we extend traditional methods of spatial statistics to study spatiotemporal correlations between two different point processes. After introducing the methodology, we apply this analysis to a particular case study of interest in ecology, the interaction between damage by a particular forest pest (western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis)) and forest fires. Our analysis, which covers parts of British Columbia in the 26-year period from 1970 to 1995, indicates that areas affected by budworm infestation have a significantly decreased risk of forest fire for the 7 years following the infestation. Conversely, forest fires decrease the risk of infestation for at least 6 years after the fire. These temporal correlations extend over a spatial range of at least 25 km. Our study rejects the common assumption that insect infestation necessarily results in increased fire risk. This case study illustrates the utility of point process modeling and spatial statistics to understanding ecosystem dynamics extending over both space and time.

}, keywords = {defoliation, disturbance regime, douglas-fir, landscape, northern, population-dynamics, resistance, sub-alpine forest}, isbn = {0045-5067}, author = {Lynch, H. J. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522371, title = {Regional carbon fluxes from an observationally constrained dynamic ecosystem model: Impacts of disturbance, CO2 fertilization, and heterogeneous land cover}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences}, volume = {112}, number = {G1}, year = {2007}, note = {

140BMTimes Cited:20Cited References Count:80

}, month = {Feb 21}, abstract = {

The Ecosystem Demography (ED) model was parameterized with ecological, forest inventory, and historical land use observations in an intensively managed, wetland-rich forested landscape in the upper midwest United States. Model results were evaluated against a regional network of eddy covariance flux towers and analyzed about the roles of disturbance, forest management, and CO2 fertilization. The model captured modern regional vegetation structure with worst comparison in wetlands. Model net ecosystem exchange of CO2 ( NEE) was highly correlated on monthly (r(2) = 0.65) and annual (r(2) = 0.53) timescales to 7 years of NEE observed at a 396-m-tall eddy covariance (EC) tower and to 2 years of growing season NEE from 13 regional stand-scale EC sites of varying cover and age (r(2) = 0.64). Model summer NEE had higher than observed net uptake for the tall tower and mature hardwood sites, and correlation to growing season ecosystem respiration at these sites was poor (r(2) = 0.09). Exclusion of forestry led to overestimation of aboveground living plant biomass accumulation by 109\% between two forest inventory cycles (1996-2004). On the long-term ( 200 years), forestry significantly altered ecosystem cover and age, and increased NEE by 32\%. CO2 fertilization over that time period increased NEE by 93\% owing to a doubling of plant density. While the model showed that harvest and afforestation had smaller impacts on NEE than CO2 increase, the former were still significant and require consideration when making future NEE predictions or scaling plot-level data to regional and global flux estimates.

}, keywords = {biosphere model, boundary-layer, deciduous forests, inventory data, managed landscape, minimum temperature, northern wisconsin forest, shade-tolerance, stomatal conductance, vegetation dynamics}, isbn = {0148-0227}, author = {Desai, A. R. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Bolstad, P. V. and Davis, K. J.} } @article {522341, title = {The contributions of land-use change, CO2 fertilization, and climate variability to the Eastern US carbon sink}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, year = {2006}, note = {

114IHTimes Cited:72Cited References Count:82

}, month = {Dec}, pages = {2370-2390}, abstract = {

Atmospheric measurements and land-based inventories imply that terrestrial ecosystems in the northern hemisphere are taking up significant amounts of anthropogenic cabon dioxide (CO2) emissions; however, there is considerable disagreement about the causes of this uptake, and its expected future trajectory. In this paper, we use the ecosystem demography (ED) model to quantify the contributions of disturbance history, CO2 fertilization and climate variability to the past, current, and future terrestrial carbon fluxes in the Eastern United States. The simulations indicate that forest regrowth following agricultural abandonment accounts for uptake of 0.11 Pg C yr(-1) in the 1980s and 0.15 Pg C yr(-1) in the 1990s, and regrowth following forest harvesting accounts for an additional 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of uptake during both these decades. The addition of CO2 fertilization into the model simulations increases carbon uptake rates to 0.38 Pg C yr(-1) in the 1980s and 0.47 Pg C yr(-1) in the 1990s. Comparisons of predicted aboveground carbon uptake to regional-scale forest inventory measurements indicate that the model{\textquoteright}s predictions in the absence of CO2 fertilization are 14\% lower than observed, while in the presence of CO2 fertilization, predicted uptake rates are 28\% larger than observed. Comparable results are obtained from comparisons of predicted total Net Ecosystem Productivity to the carbon fluxes observed at the Harvard Forest flux tower site and in model simulations free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. These results imply that disturbance history is the principal mechanism responsible for current carbon uptake in the Eastern United States, and that conventional biogeochemical formulations of plant growth overestimate the response of plants to rising CO2 levels. Model projections out to 2100 imply that the carbon uptake arising from forest regrowth will increasingly be dominated by forest regrowth following harvesting. Consequently, actual carbon storage declines to near zero by the end of the 21st century as the forest regrowth that has occurred since agricultural abandonment comes into equilibrium with the landscape{\textquoteright}s new disturbance regime. Incorporating interannual climate variability into the model simulations gives rise to large interannual variation in regional carbon fluxes, indicating that long-term measurements are necessary to detect the signature of processes that give rise to long-term uptake and storage.

}, keywords = {atmospheric co2, climate variability, co2 fertilization, co2 fluxes, deciduous forest, disturbance history, eastern united states, ecosystem demography ( ed) model, elevated co2, forest harvesting, interannual variability, land-use history, photosynthesis, regional-scale uptake, stomatal conductance, temperate forest, terrestrial carbon sink, terrestrial ecosystems, united-states, use history}, isbn = {1354-1013}, author = {Albani, M. and Medvigy, D. and Hurtt, G. C. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522346, title = {The global-scale temperature and moisture dependencies of soil organic carbon decomposition: an analysis using a mechanistic decomposition model}, journal = {Biogeochemistry}, volume = {80}, number = {3}, year = {2006}, note = {

090VJTimes Cited:52Cited References Count:61

}, month = {Sep}, pages = {217-231}, abstract = {

Since the decomposition rate of soil organic carbon (SOC) varies as a function of environmental conditions, global climate change is expected to alter SOC decomposition dynamics, and the resulting changes in the amount of CO2 emitted from soils will feedback onto the rate at which climate change occurs. While this soil feedback is expected to be significant because the amount of SOC is substantially more than the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, the environmental dependencies of decomposition at global scales that determine the magnitude of the soil feedback have remained poorly characterized. In this study, we address this issue by fitting a mechanistic decomposition model to a global dataset of SOC, optimizing the model{\textquoteright}s temperature and moisture dependencies to best match the observed global distribution of SOC. The results of the analysis indicate that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition at global scales (Q(10)=1.37) is significantly less than is assumed by many terrestrial ecosystem models that directly apply temperature sensitivity from small-scale studies, and that the maximal rate of decomposition occurs at higher moisture values than is assumed by many models. These findings imply that the magnitude of the soil decomposition feedback onto rate of global climate change will be less sensitive to increases in temperature, and modeling of temperature and moisture dependencies of SOC decomposition in global-scale models should consider effects of scale.

}, keywords = {boreal forests, carbon cycling, climate change, climate-change, co2, cycle feedbacks, decomposition, land-use, matter, modeling, q10, Respiration, sensitivity, turnover, vegetation dynamics}, isbn = {0168-2563}, author = {Ise, T. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522356, title = {How close are we to a predictive science of the biosphere?}, journal = {Trends Ecol Evol}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, year = {2006}, note = {

Moorcroft, Paul RengResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.ReviewEngland2006/07/04 09:00Trends Ecol Evol. 2006 Jul;21(7):400-7. Epub 2006 May 12.

}, month = {Jul}, pages = {400-7}, abstract = {

In just 20 years, the field of biosphere-atmosphere interactions has gone from a nascent discipline to a central area of modern climate change research. The development of terrestrial biosphere models that predict the responses of ecosystems to climate and increasing CO2 levels has highlighted several mechanisms by which changes in ecosystem composition and function might alter regional and global climate. However, results from empirical studies suggest that ecosystem responses can differ markedly from the predictions of terrestrial biosphere models. As I discuss here, the challenge now is to connect terrestrial biosphere models to empirical ecosystem measurements. Only by systematically evaluating the predictions of terrestrial biosphere models against suites of ecosystem observations and experiments measurements will a true predictive science of the biosphere be achieved.

}, keywords = {*Climate, *Ecosystem, *Forecasting, Acclimatization/physiology, Atmosphere/*analysis, Biodiversity, Geology/methods, Models, Theoretical, Plant Physiological Phenomena}, isbn = {0169-5347 (Print)0169-5347 (Linking)}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522351, title = {The influence of previous mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) activity on the 1988 yellowstone fires}, journal = {Ecosystems}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, year = {2006}, note = {

128ISTimes Cited:53Cited References Count:33

}, month = {Dec}, pages = {1318-1327}, abstract = {

We examined the historical record of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) activity within Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, for the 25-years period leading up to the 1988 Yellowstone fires (1963-86) to determine how prior beetle activity and the resulting tree mortality affected the spatial pattern of the 1988 Yellowstone fires. To obtain accurate estimates of our model parameters, we used a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to account for the high degree of spatial autocorrelation inherent to forest fires. Our final model included three statistically significant variables: drought, aspect, and sustained mountain pine beetle activity in the period 1972-75. Of the two major mountain pine beetle outbreaks that preceded the 1988 fires, the earlier outbreak (1972-75) was significantly correlated with the burn pattern, whereas the more recent one (1980-83) was not. Although regional drought and high winds were responsible for the large scale of this event, the analysis indicates that mountain pine beetle activity in the mid-1970s increased the odds of burning in 1988 by 11\% over unaffected areas. Although relatively small in magnitude, this effect, combined with the effects of aspect and spatial variation in drought, had a dramatic impact on the spatial pattern of burned and unburned areas in 1988.

}, keywords = {1988 yellowstone fires, disturbance interactions, Ecology, fire ecology, forest, insect-fire interactions, landscape, markov chain monte carlo, models, mountain pine beetle, yellowstone national park}, isbn = {1432-9840}, author = {Lynch, H. J. and Renkin, R. A. and Crabtree, R. L. and Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522361, title = {Mechanistic home range models capture spatial patterns and dynamics of coyote territories in Yellowstone}, journal = {Proc Biol Sci}, volume = {273}, number = {1594}, year = {2006}, note = {

Moorcroft, Paul RLewis, Mark ACrabtree, Robert LengEngland2006/06/14 09:00Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Jul 7;273(1594):1651-9.

}, month = {Jul 7}, pages = {1651-9}, abstract = {

Patterns of space-use by individuals are fundamental to the ecology of animal populations influencing their social organization, mating systems, demography and the spatial distribution of prey and competitors. To date, the principal method used to analyse the underlying determinants of animal home range patterns has been resource selection analysis (RSA), a spatially implicit approach that examines the relative frequencies of animal relocations in relation to landscape attributes. In this analysis, we adopt an alternative approach, using a series of mechanistic home range models to analyse observed patterns of territorial space-use by coyote packs in the heterogeneous landscape of Yellowstone National Park. Unlike RSAs, mechanistic home range models are derived from underlying correlated random walk models of individual movement behaviour, and yield spatially explicit predictions for patterns of space-use by individuals. As we show here, mechanistic home range models can be used to determine the underlying determinants of animal home range patterns, incorporating both movement responses to underlying landscape heterogeneities and the effects of behavioural interactions between individuals. Our analysis indicates that the spatial arrangement of coyote territories in Yellowstone is determined by the spatial distribution of prey resources and an avoidance response to the presence of neighbouring packs. We then show how the fitted mechanistic home range model can be used to correctly predict observed shifts in the patterns of coyote space-use in response to perturbation.

}, keywords = {*Homing Behavior, *Spatial Behavior, Animals, Coyotes/*physiology, Population dynamics, Wyoming}, isbn = {0962-8452 (Print)0962-8452 (Linking)}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R. and Lewis, M. A. and Crabtree, R. L.} } @article {522366, title = {Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change}, journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology}, volume = {241}, number = {3}, year = {2006}, note = {

Moorcroft, P RPacala, S WLewis, M AengResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}tResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.Netherlands2006/02/28 09:00J Theor Biol. 2006 Aug 7;241(3):601-16. Epub 2006 Feb 24.

}, month = {Aug 7}, pages = {601-16}, abstract = {

Recent investigations have shown how chance, long-range dispersal events can allow tree populations to migrate rapidly in response to changes in climate. However, this apparent solution to Reid{\textquoteright}s paradox applies solely within the context of single species models, while the rapid migration rates seen in pollen records occurred within multispecies communities. Ecologists are therefore presented with a new challenge: reconciling the macroscopic dynamics of spread seen in the pollen record with the rules and interactions governing plant community assembly. A case that highlights this issue is the rapid spread of Beech during the Holocene into a landscape already dominated by a close competitor, Hemlock. In this study, we analyse a simple model of plant community assembly incorporating competition for space and dispersal dynamics, showing how, even when a species is capable of rapid migration into an empty landscape, the presence of an ecologically similar competitor causes Reid{\textquoteright}s paradox to re-emerge because of the dramatic slowing effect of competitive interactions on a species{\textquoteright} rate of spread. We then show how the answer to the question of how tree species dispersed rapidly into occupied landscapes may lie in secondary interactions with host-specific pathogens and parasites. Inclusion of host-specific pathogens into the simple community assembly model illustrates how tree species undergoing range expansions can temporarily outstrip specialist predators, giving rise to a transient Jansen-Connell effect, in which the invader acts as temporary {\textquoteright}super-species{\textquoteright} that spreads rapidly into communities already occupied by competitors at rates consistent with those observed in the paleo-record.

}, keywords = {*Greenhouse Effect, *Models, Biological, Ecosystem, Fagus/growth \& development, Plant Diseases/microbiology, Species Specificity, Trees/*growth \& development/microbiology, Tsuga/growth \& development}, isbn = {0022-5193 (Print)0022-5193 (Linking)}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R. and Pacala, S. W. and Lewis, M. A.} } @article {522336, title = {Recent advances in ecosystem-atmosphere interactions: an ecological perspective}, journal = {Proc Biol Sci}, volume = {270}, number = {1521}, year = {2003}, note = {

Moorcroft, P RengResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}tResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.ReviewEngland2003/06/21 05:00Proc Biol Sci. 2003 Jun 22;270(1521):1215-27.

}, month = {Jun 22}, pages = {1215-27}, abstract = {

The atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems are fundamentally coupled on a variety of time-scales. On short time-scales, this bi-directional interaction is dominated by the rapid exchange of CO(2), water and energy between the atmosphere and the land surface; on long time-scales, the interaction involves changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to changes in climate that feed back through biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms to influence climate over decades and centuries. After briefly describing some early pioneering work, I focus this review on recent advances in understanding long-term ecosystem-atmosphere interactions through a discussion of three case studies. I then examine how efforts to assess the stability and resilience of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions over these long time-scales using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models are hampered by the presence of important functional diversity and heterogeneity within plant communities. Recent work illustrates how this issue can be addressed through the use of Structured Ecosystem Models that more accurately scale between the short-term physiological responses of individual plants and the long-term, large-scale dynamics of heterogeneous, functionally diverse ecosystems.

}, keywords = {*Atmosphere, *Ecosystem, *Plant Development, Climate, Feedback, Soil}, isbn = {0962-8452 (Print)0962-8452 (Linking)}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R.} } @article {522331, title = {Projecting the future of the U.S. carbon sink}, journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci USA}, volume = {99}, number = {3}, year = {2002}, note = {

Hurtt, G CPacala, S WMoorcroft, P RCaspersen, JShevliakova, EHoughton, R AMoore, B 3rdengResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.2002/02/07 10:00Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Feb 5;99(3):1389-94.

}, month = {Feb 5}, pages = {1389-94}, abstract = {

Atmospheric and ground-based methods agree on the presence of a carbon sink in the coterminous United States (the United States minus Alaska and Hawaii), and the primary causes for the sink recently have been identified. Projecting the future behavior of the sink is necessary for projecting future net emissions. Here we use two models, the Ecosystem Demography model and a second simpler empirically based model (Miami Land Use History), to estimate the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes resulting from land-use changes and fire suppression from 1700 to 2100. Our results are compared with other historical reconstructions of ecosystem carbon fluxes and to a detailed carbon budget for the 1980s. Our projections indicate that the ecosystem recovery processes that are primarily responsible for the contemporary U.S. carbon sink will slow over the next century, resulting in a significant reduction of the sink. The projected rate of decrease depends strongly on scenarios of future land use and the long-term effectiveness of fire suppression.

}, keywords = {*Carbon, *Ecosystem, Agriculture/*trends, Conservation of Natural Resources, Environmental Monitoring/methods, Fires/prevention \& control, Time Factors, United States}, isbn = {0027-8424 (Print)0027-8424 (Linking)}, author = {Hurtt, G. C. and Pacala, S. W. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Caspersen, J. and Shevliakova, E. and Houghton, R. A. and Moore, B., 3rd} } @article {522326, title = {Contributions of land-use history to carbon accumulation in U.S. forests}, journal = {Science}, volume = {290}, number = {5494}, year = {2000}, note = {

Caspersen, J PPacala, S WJenkins, J CHurtt, G CMoorcroft, P RBirdsey, R AengResearch Support, U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t, Non-P.H.S.New York, N.Y.2000/11/10 11:00Science. 2000 Nov 10;290(5494):1148-51.

}, month = {Nov 10}, pages = {1148-51}, abstract = {

Carbon accumulation in forests has been attributed to historical changes in land use and the enhancement of tree growth by CO2 fertilization, N deposition, and climate change. The relative contribution of land use and growth enhancement is estimated by using inventory data from five states spanning a latitudinal gradient in the eastern United States. Land use is the dominant factor governing the rate of carbon accumulation in these states, with growth enhancement contributing far less than previously reported. The estimated fraction of aboveground net ecosystem production due to growth enhancement is 2.0 +/- 4.4\%, with the remainder due to land use.

}, keywords = {*Biomass, *Carbon/metabolism, *Ecosystem, *Trees/growth \& development/metabolism, Agriculture, Carbon Dioxide, Forestry, Likelihood Functions, United States}, isbn = {0036-8075 (Print)0036-8075 (Linking)}, author = {Caspersen, J. P. and Pacala, S. W. and Jenkins, J. C. and Hurtt, G. C. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Birdsey, R. A.} } @article {522321, title = {Home range analysis using a mechanistic home range model}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {80}, number = {5}, year = {1999}, pages = {1656-1665}, abstract = {

The traditional models used to characterize animal home ranges have no mechanistic basis underlying their descriptions of space use, and as a result, the analysis of animal home ranges has primarily been a descriptive endeavor. In this paper, we characterize coyote (Canis latrans) home range patterns using partial differential equations for expected space use that are formally derived from underlying descriptions of individual movement behavior. To our knowledge, this is the first time that mechanistic models have been used to characterize animal home ranges. The results provide empirical support for a model formulation of movement response to scent marks, and suggest that having relocation data for individuals in adjacent groups is necessary to capture the spatial arrangement of home range boundaries. We then show how the model fits can be used to obtain predictions for individual movement and scent marking behavior and to predict changes in home range patterns. More generally, ourfindings illustrate how mechanistic models permit the development of a predictive theory for the relationship between movement behavior and animal spatial distribution.

}, keywords = {Behaviour, Carnivores, Chordates, Land zones, Mammals, Nearctic region, North America, Techniques, USA, Vertebrates}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R. and Lewis, M. A. and Crabtree, R. L.} } @article {522316, title = {Density-dependent selection in a fluctuating ungulate population}, journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences}, volume = {263}, number = {1366}, year = {1996}, pages = {31-38}, abstract = {

Despite considerable theoretical interest no direct examples of density-dependent natural selection acting on simple polymorphic variation have been documented in a natural population. Here we show that the magnitude of selective differences in survival between phenotypes in two conspicuous polymorphisms of coat colour and horn type in Soay sheep Ovis aries living on St Kilda, Scotland are associated with marked changes in population density. Selection is strongest in years of high density but weak in years of low density. In addition to direct observations of density-dependent {\textquoteright}soft{\textquoteright} selection in a natural population, the analysis revealed that the level of overcompensatory mortality (responsible for promoting population instability) was higher after accounting for genetic variation in the coat and horn morph traits. The results emphasize the importance of understanding the interaction between selection and population demography for both genetic and ecological studies of natural populations.

}, keywords = {Chordates, Colour and luminescence, Ecology, Eurasia, Europe, Evolution, Hair, Integument, Integumentary derivatives, Land zones, Mammals, Morphological variation, Palaearctic region, Population dynamics, Skeletal and supporting structures, Skeleton, Skull, Ungulates, United Kingdom, Variation, Vertebrates}, url = {http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/263/1366/31}, author = {Moorcroft, P. R. and Albon, S. D. and Pemberton, J. M. and Stevenson, I. R. and Clutton-Brock, T. H.} } @article {522311, title = {Parasite-associated polymorphism in a cyclic ungulate population}, journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences}, volume = {254}, number = {1339}, year = {1993}, pages = {7-13}, abstract = {

An unmanaged population of Soay sheep living on Hirta, St Kilda, Scotland is persistently unstable, fluctuating between about 600 and 1600 individuals. Population crashes occurring approximately every 3 years are primarily due to winter food shortage. In this paper we show that sheep experimentally relieved of their gastrointestinal nematodes (predominantly Teladorsagia spp.) survived a crash better than matched controls, showing that nematode parasites contribute to the probability that a sheep dies in a crash. We also show that over three successive crashes mortality was significantly different between individuals of the three different genotypes at the diallelic adenosine deaminase locus (Ada). FF animals were most likely to die, SS animals had an intermediate probability of dying, and FS animals were least likely to die. Finally, three independent lines of evidence suggest that nematode burdens differ between the three Ada genotypes. First, in August, heterozygous females are less likely to have nematode eggs in their faeces than homozygous females. Second, at lambing, the periparturient rise in faecal egg count was highest in homozygous FF individuals. Finally, during the Autumn mating season, heterozygous males has lower faecal egg counts than homozgyotes, although this relation was complicated by interactions with year and age of male. These results are consistent with the idea that Ada allele frequencies are maintained in the sheep population by parasite-associated selection.

}, keywords = {Chordates, Ecology, Eurasia, Europe, Evolution, Genetics, Helminth parasites, Hosts, Invertebrates, Land zones, Mammals, Nematodes, Palaearctic region, Parasites, Parasites diseases and disorders, Population dynamics, Ungulates, United Kingdom, Vertebrates}, url = {http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/254/1339/7}, author = {Gulland, F. M. D. and Albon, S. D. and Pemberton, J. M. and Moorcroft, P. R. and Clutton-Brock, T. H.} }